10-Year A-Share Simulation: The Final Fate of 5 Retail Trader Types (10,000 Participants)

Experiment Background

We used real A-share data from January 1, 2015 to December 12, 2025, covering approximately 5,000 stocks (excluding ST stocks), simulating 10,000 participants for each of 5 typical retail trading styles over 10 years.

Benchmark: Shanghai Composite Index return: +16.08%

This experiment reveals a harsh truth: Your trading style has already determined your fate.

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📊 The 10-Year Outcomes of Five Trader Types

1. Random Buyers - The Mediocre Majority

> No particular method, buy whatever catches their eye, sell when it feels right

Analysis: This is the most "ordinary" retail investor. After 10 years, half profit and half lose, but less than 30% beat simply holding the index.

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2. Passive DCA Investors - The Big Winners 🏆

> Start buying slowly below 3000 points, start selling slowly above 3000 points

Analysis: The simplest strategy yields the best results. Not a single person lost more than 50%, nearly 70% beat the index. This is the power of discipline and patience.

This style corresponds to TPI types: SLCR (Value Investor), ILCR (Patient Observer)

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3. Momentum Chasers - The Harvested ⚠️

> Buy when rising, panic sell when falling

Analysis: This is why most retail investors lose money. 70% lost more than half, only 10% profited.

But notice that +8,850% lucky winner—momentum chasing occasionally produces "legends," making you think you could be next. This is survivorship bias.

This style corresponds to TPI types: ITAE (Momentum Chaser), STAE (High-Energy Trader)

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4. Averaging Down Type - High Risk, High Reward

> Buy more as it falls, keep adding to positions, sell when breaking even (Martingale-like strategy)

Analysis: On average, it's indeed easier to make money, which is why many people like this strategy. But 11% catastrophic loss rate means bad luck can be devastating.

The maximum loss reached -98.72%, even worse than momentum chasing's -96.53%. The essence of Martingale is exchanging low-probability huge losses for high-probability small gains.

This style requires the risk tolerance of: SLAR (Strategic Investor), ILAR (Visionary Investor)

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5. Frequent Traders - Working for Brokers

> Can't resist frequent trading, averaging 44 trades per year

Analysis: Notice the huge gap between average and median returns—indicating extremely uneven distribution, with few making big money while most have small losses.

The problem with frequent trading isn't just fees; more importantly, every trade is an opportunity to make mistakes.

This style corresponds to TPI types: ITAR (Opportunistic Trader), STAR (Disciplined Day Trader)

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📈 Key Metrics Comparison

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🎯 Insights for TPI Personality Types

If You're an Emotional Trader (E-type)

You're most likely to fall into the momentum chasing trap. Data shows this is the worst trading style, with 70% losing more than half.

Recommendations: 1. Establish strict trading rules, don't make impulsive decisions 2. Use automatic stop-losses to avoid panic selling 3. Consider allocating funds to DCA strategies

If You're a Conservative Trader (C-type)

Passive DCA is perfect for you. 86% profitability, 0% catastrophic losses—the most stable strategy.

Recommendations: 1. Leverage your patience advantage 2. Don't be affected by short-term fluctuations 3. Stick to buy-low-sell-high discipline

If You're an Aggressive Trader (A-type)

Averaging down may be attractive because average returns are decent. But remember the 11% catastrophic loss rate.

Recommendations: 1. Always set a maximum loss limit 2. Don't use all capital for one strategy 3. Have rules limiting position additions

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Conclusion: Your Personality Determines Your Strategy

This 10-year simulation reveals a truth:

Retail investors don't lose money because of "bad luck," but because they choose strategies that don't match their personality.

Momentum chasers are essentially ITAE types who can't control emotions, trading in the worst possible way.

Passive DCA investors are SLCR types investing in the way that suits them best.

Understanding your trader personality and choosing matching strategies is more important than any technical analysis.

Take the Free Trader Personality Test →

Keep Improving Your Trading System

If you want to turn this article into better trading results, the next step is:
• Review all 16 trader personalities
• Read more trading psychology articles
• Take the free trading personality test

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